President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s choice to keep Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate in the 2027 presidential election has sparked new political disputes across the country, with pundits, party members, and voters presenting varying interpretations of the action.
It should be noted that on Friday, the Nigerian president and presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) kept Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.
While some saw the decision as a political move to boost the APC’s prospects of keeping power, others believe it raises issues about the party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket and national inclusiveness.
Separate private interviews with revealed that analysts and prospective voters held opposing opinions on the significance of the President’s choice.
According to Aminu Rabiu, the Muslim-Muslim ticket remains a winning formula for APC.
Aminu Rabiu, a political analyst in Kano, said the All Progressives Congress (APC) believes its Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket is still a winning formula ahead of the 2027 general election.
According to him, the party maintained Vice President Kashim Shettima because it believes the combination will deliver victory again.
In an exclusive interview with Aminu President Bola Tinubu’s decision to keep Shettima demonstrates unity, continuity, and confidence within the ruling party.
“It means there is relative understanding, cohesion and unity within the ruling APC,” he stated.
“It means that staying with Kashim Shettima is more rewarding than leaving him. Dropping Shettima would have been a political disaster for the ruling APC.”
According to him, the decision demonstrates that the party feels that running the same ticket will increase its chances of holding power in 2027.
“It indicates continuance. It indicates unity. Returning Kashim Shettima will be more lucrative and will not jeopardise the party’s effort to regain power in 2027,” he stated.
Aminu claimed that the APC’s decision was based on political calculations, and that the same-faith ticket still has electoral worth.
“The math for the Muslim-Muslim ticket is still valid and will help them win again in 2027. It will still result in a big number of votes in both the north and south of Nigeria.
“Politics is a calculation. If they understood it would not benefit them, they would not participate. If the outcome had been catastrophic, they would have modified the calculation.”
Explaining why there was so much conjecture before the news, the political analyst stated that neither President Tinubu, Vice President Shettima, nor the APC had openly discussed whether the vice president would be kept or replaced.
“There were many speculations because neither Tinubu, Shettima nor the APC ever spoke directly about dropping or retaining Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 election,” he stated.
He mentioned that many Christian APC members had advocated for a transition to a Muslim-Christian ticket in the interests of equity and religious harmony.
“There were many guesses, particularly among Christian APC members. “They wanted the party to maintain balance, fairness, justice, and unity by selecting a Christian running mate,” he explained.
Aminu also stated that international issues, including comments by US President Donald Trump about purported Christian persecution in Nigeria, influenced the argument.
“There was also the problem of Donald Trump and America, and there were allegations of Christian genocide in Nigeria. Some people believed Tinubu would replace Shettima with a Christian in order to please America and negate the narrative coming from America and the West,” he stated.
“But Tinubu returned Shettima because he believes keeping him is more rewarding, while dropping him would be catastrophic.”
On the significance of a vice-presidential candidate in determining election outcomes, Aminu stated that the running mate plays an important role but is not the determining factor.
“A vice presidential candidate is significant, but not decisive. “The presidential candidate remains the most important factor,” he stated.
“The personality, regional background, ethnicity and religion of the presidential candidate matter more in determining the outcome of a presidential election in Nigeria.”
He stated that Tinubu initially chose Shettima in 2023 to boost support in Northern Nigeria.
“The major reason Tinubu picked Shettima in 2023 was to appeal to Muslim voters in the North-West, North-East and other parts of Northern Nigeria, and it worked,” he stated.
“They received big votes in the North-West and North-East. Even in Kano State, where the Kwankwasiyya movement is dominant, Tinubu received a substantial number of votes. Tinubu received over 500,000 votes, but Kwankwaso received over 900,000 votes, indicating that the votes were split.
According to Aminu, the APC is using the same strategy that was successful in the previous election.
“They tested it in 2023, and it delivered what they expected. That is why they have decided to test it again in 2027.
“They want to see if it will yield the same result as in the previous election. “It is a tried and true pattern.”
Speaking about the implications of Shettima’s retention in the North-East and the wider North, the analyst emphasised that the vice president’s regional, ethnic, and religious heritage continues to be a significant political asset.
“It has been tested and trusted that a vice-presidential candidate’s regional, ethnic and religious background matters a lot in politics,” he stated.
“They believe Shettima helped them secure massive support in the North in 2023, and they want to repeat that success.”
In terms of opposition parties, Aminu believes they lack the strength to pose a real challenge to the APC at this time.
“It is obvious that the opposition parties have been weakened through court cases, legal battles and internal disputes,” he stated.