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The third season of kidnappings before the election has begun in Chibok, Dapchi, and now Oriire

Tragedies like the one in Oyo were common. In Askira Uba, Borno State, 42 students from Mussa Primary and Junior Secondary School were kidnapped by militants on the very same day.

More than 80 students and teachers from Nigeria were removed from their classes in the span of one day. After all these time, a lot of them are still in captivity.

Bandits in the Northwest launched new attacks in Zamfara as the nation entered June, abducting students from a polytechnic and other inhabitants of adjacent areas.

Rescue efforts were still ongoing in the Southwest and Northeast. Additionally, in Ibadan, the capital of Oyo State, unidentified assailants abducted the twin boys and sister of former Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu as they made their way to school.

The trend points to a concerning uptick in the assaults on schools. Students and teachers’ groups are currently debating whether to stage demonstrations on a national scale.

I can empathise with their frustration. Schools, which should be places of hope and learning, are instead turning becoming places of terror.

Mass kidnappings from schools were long thought to have originated in Northern Nigeria. However, the Oyo tragedy has caused widespread indignation, reevaluation of Nigeria’s security infrastructure, and increased demands for immediate action. It is the first incident of its kind in the Southwest.

A powerful federal delegation, headed by Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the national security adviser, visited the impacted villages after realising the seriousness of the situation. Additional military stations would be set up along critical routes connecting Kwara and portions of the southern area, and 1,000 forest guards will be recruited, according to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

This deployment plan is reminiscent of tactics used in the past by northern states in their fight against terrorism and banditry.

These events made me wonder, and I shared my concern on social media, what many Nigerians are thinking but aren’t ready to say out loud: Are these repeated school attacks just acts of terrorism and banditry, or is there a more systemic political pattern at play? Even if it’s an annoying question, it won’t go away.

While President Goodluck Jonathan was running for re-election in 2014, 276 schoolgirls from Chibok in Borno State were abducted, sending shockwaves around the globe and serving as a symbol of the administration’s insecurity.

Exactly four years later, in 2018, as President Muhammadu Buhari was getting ready for the 2019 elections, 110 Dapchi schoolgirls were kidnapped in Yobe State. The episode continued to cloud the political atmosphere, even after the majority of the girls were released.

Another troubling wave of school attacks has recently emerged in Nigeria, with an unprecedented expansion of these crimes into the Southwest. This comes as political activities leading up to the 2027 elections gain steam under President Tinubu. A total of three campaigns. There were three significant crises involving the abduction of students from schools. Three governments put on the defensive just when they are about to lose support from the public.

This better not be the start of what some pessimists would call Season Three. By no means am I claiming a plot. Instead of ignoring it, I should honestly question the trend I’ve noticed because it’s been going on for quite some time. Does this just happen by chance? I suppose so. However, it’s hard to disregard the timing.

A major factor in Jonathan’s electoral loss was the shadow created by the Chibok kidnapping, which hung over his leadership. Since the majority of the kidnapped students were either freed or rescued prior to Buhari’s re-election in 2019, the Dapchi issue did not derail his administration.

Now we wait to see if Tinubu’s government can stem the tide of insecurity before it escalates into a comparable catastrophe. This highlights the critical need for immediate and unwavering response.

The government’s 2014 Safe Schools Initiative needs immediate reinforcement. Also, before the 2015 elections, when insurgency was at its height in Nigeria, it is important to reevaluate the foreign military technological relationships that had helped the country. Above all else, state and community policing must now be implemented.

Locally recruited security organisations that understand their geography, people, and threats should be empowered by law to safeguard every community.

The long-term effects are much more disturbing than the immediate disaster. More than 50 million students in Nigeria are at risk of losing their education due to the ongoing attacks on schools.

A countrywide decline in development and an already worrying drop in school enrolment could result if parents pull their children out of school in a state of panic.

There should be zero tolerance for the intentional or accidental use of insecurity as a political tool.

Every incident where a school is targeted is a threat to the future of Nigeria.

The repeated occurrence of similar instances during politically sensitive moments continues to alarm me as a student of crisis communication and national security. Is it possible that criminal organisations are trying to get the most out of election seasons? Is there anyone making money off of the panic these attacks sow?

I won’t say I know the final verdict. However, one cannot overlook the pattern. The incident in Chibok sparked widespread condemnation throughout the world. Some returns were visible to Dapchi.

A statewide teachers’ strike, a kidnapped toddler, and a decapitated teacher are all products of Oriire.

The failure to protect pupils at politically sensitive periods has plagued Nigeria for what appears to be three seasons, beginning with Chibok, Dapchi, and now Oriire. If this is “Season Three,” then the only thing that matters is if the nation can put measures in place to avoid the disastrous “Season Four.”

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